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Report name
Inquiry into the 2019-20 Victorian Fire Season - Phase 1
Lead agency
CFA - Country Fire Authority
DELWP - Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning
DEECA - Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action
Due date
December 2021
IGEM considers that this action has been implemented
Recommendation theme
Recommendation 9: Appropriateness of the current residual risk target
Recommendation details

The Inspector-General for Emergency Management recommends that the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (or the single entity referenced in Recommendation 4) – in collaboration with the Country Fire Authority and local government – undertake a review of the current residual risk target to ensure that it remains contemporary in terms of its designated percentage value.


The review should:
a)    involve engagement with land and fire management agencies; public authorities; private organisations; individuals and any other stakeholders with a role in fuel management
b)    define a pathway to expanding the residual risk target to apply to all methods of fuel management, with the expansion of the target to apply across all organisations with a legislated responsibility for fuel management
c)    become part of a program of review of the State's land and fuel management policy occurring on a regular basis and not exceeding a five-year cycle.


DELWP and CFA are currently updating approaches to modelling risk, centred on a metric of house loss. This work will broaden the range of values considered in bushfire risk modelling, to include water yield and quality, critical infrastructure, fire size and agricultural values.

Summary of progress

DELWP in partnership with CFA developed the Risk 2.0 program to broaden the previous modelling metrics that focused on modelling risk based on potential house loss. Risk 2.0 enhanced the metrics that are used to estimate potential house and asset loss. It also introduced additional risk metrics to provide more realistic risk modelling, such as:

  • water supply – assesses the risk of fires to water quality in Melbourne Water catchments
  • critical infrastructure values – assesses the risk of fire to critical infrastructure assets in Victoria
  • fire size prioritisation – enhances understanding of the risk of large landscape fires in Victoria's forests to support fuel management planning in Landscape Management Zones
  • primary production (agriculture) – assesses the risk of fire to sheds, fences and plantations in Victoria.

DELWP has also developed internal websites to demonstrate and communicate these risk metrics.